Deepmind co-founder Shane Legg puts the odds of achieving "minimal AGI" at 50 percent by 2028. In an interview with Hannah Fry, Legg lays out his framework for thinking about artificial general intelligence. He describes a scale running from minimal AGI through full AGI to artificial superintelligence (ASI). Minimal AGI means an artificial agent that can handle the cognitive tasks most humans typically perform. Full AGI covers the entire range of human cognition, including exceptional achievements like developing new scientific theories or composing symphonies.
Legg believes minimal AGI could arrive in roughly two years. Full AGI would follow three to six years later. To measure progress, he proposes a comprehensive test suite: if an AI system passes all typical human cognitive tasks, and human teams can't find any weak points even after months of searching with full access to every detail of the system, the goal has been reached.
