The high-stakes AI bet keeps getting bigger: OpenAI has raised its spending forecast to $115B by 2029, more than tripling its previous estimate. The company also expects revenue to climb along with its costs.
According to The Information, OpenAI now projects a total cash outflow of $115B through 2029—about $80B more than earlier forecasts, which had the company reaching break-even by then. The burn rate is accelerating: OpenAI expects to go through more than $8B this year, with spending climbing to $17B in 2026. By 2027, costs are set to hit $35B, then jump to $47B in 2028. At the start of the year, OpenAI was only projecting $11B in spending for 2028.
| Year | Old forecast (Q1 2025) | New forecast (Q3 2025) |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | ~ $2B | -$2B |
| 2025* | ~ -$7B | -$9B |
| 2026* | ~ -$8B | -$17B |
| 2027* | ~ -$20B | -$35B |
| 2028* | ~ -$11B | -$47B |
| 2029* | ~ +$12B | -$8B |
| 2030* | ~ +$41B | +$38B |
The main reason for these numbers is the soaring cost of computing power needed to train and run OpenAI's models, along with a major push to build out its own server infrastructure. The company plans to invest nearly $100B in data centers and custom chips by 2030, hoping to cut its dependence on outside cloud providers and lower costs over time.
Training foundation models keeps getting more expensive. OpenAI expects to spend over $9B on training alone in 2025 - about $2B more than it had budgeted. By 2026, that figure could reach $19B. Meanwhile, ongoing inference costs could top $150B by 2030.
Personnel costs are climbing, too. OpenAI is setting aside about $20B in extra stock compensation through 2030 to stay competitive in the race for top AI researchers and engineers. The fight for AI talent is heating up, with Meta reportedly offering nine-figure deals to lure away leading experts.
Higher revenue projections
OpenAI is counting on a major jump in revenue to keep up with its rising costs. For this year, the company expects total revenue of about $13B, roughly $300M above its earlier 2025 forecast. By 2030, OpenAI now projects $200B in revenue, about 15 percent higher than previous estimates.
ChatGPT is driving much of that growth. The chatbot is expected to bring in almost $10B this year alone, around $2B more than projected at the start of the year. By 2030, OpenAI expects ChatGPT to generate nearly $90B in revenue, a 40 percent increase over earlier projections. Over the next six years, the company is banking on an extra $70B in revenue from ChatGPT alone.
Free ChatGPT users are also becoming a key revenue stream. Between 2026 and 2030, OpenAI aims to bring in about $110B from this group, through things like shopping commissions or possibly advertising.
| Year | ChatGPT | API | agents | New products, free users | Total revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | < $1B | < $1B | < $1B | < $1B | $1B |
| 2024 | ~ $3B | ~ $1B | - | - | $4B |
| 2025* | ~ $10B | ~ $2B | ~ $1B | - | $13B |
| 2026* | ~ $20B | ~ $5B | ~ $3B | ~ $2B | $30B |
| 2027* | ~ $35B | ~ $8B | ~ $7B | ~ $10B | $60B |
| 2028* | ~ $50B | ~ $15B | ~ $15B | ~ $20B | ~ $100B |
| 2029* | ~ $70B | ~ $15B | ~ $25B | ~ $35B | $145B |
| 2030* | ~ $90B | ~ $25B | ~ $25B | ~ $60B | ~ $200B |
Forecast via The Information
For free ChatGPT users, OpenAI originally projected average revenue per user at $2 in 2026 and $15 in 2030—a 650 percent jump—with a target user base of two billion weekly active users. OpenAI currently counts 700 million weekly active users.
OpenAI expects gross margins in this segment to reach between 80 and 85 percent, putting it in the same league as Meta's advertising business. That means system costs will need to come down, or ad deals with ChatGPT could get expensive for advertisers.
Despite the risk, investors are still interested. The report says several investors are prepared to buy shares at a valuation of $500B. Earlier in August, OpenAI was valued at $300B. Rival Anthropic is currently valued at about $180B.
