Chinese AI industry admits US remains ahead for now

Leading figures in China's AI industry are tempering expectations: China won't overtake the US in the AI race anytime soon. Justin Lin, head of Alibaba's Qwen model series, puts the odds of a Chinese company surpassing OpenAI or Anthropic in the next three to five years at less than 20 percent. Tang Jie from Zhipu AI warned at the AGI Next Summit in Beijing that the gap with the US may actually be widening, though recent open-source releases suggest otherwise.

At the conference, executives cited limited computing capacity and US export controls on advanced chips as key hurdles. US infrastructure is one to two orders of magnitude larger, forcing Chinese companies to focus resources on current projects.

Yao Shunyu, a former OpenAI researcher and now Tencent's AI chief scientist, was more optimistic. He cited three to five years as a realistic timeframe for China to catch up but said the lack of advanced chipmaking machines was the main technical hurdle.

The cautious outlook follows a strong week on the stock market. Startups Zhipu AI and MiniMax Group together raised over one billion dollars in Hong Kong, with MiniMax shares doubling on their first day of trading.