If OpenAI actually delivers on its rumored revenue projections, it would set a pace of growth the tech industry has never seen.
The company is reportedly forecasting a jump from $13 billion in 2025 to $100 billion by 2028 or 2029. According to Epoch AI, only seven US companies in the past fifty years (that Epoch AI could find) have ever grown from $10 billion to $100 billion in sales within ten years or less—OpenAI's projection would hit that milestone in just about three years.
But the leap from $10 billion to $100 billion in just three years would be unprecedented. The fastest any US company has made that jump is seven years, a record held by Tesla and Meta. Even Google, the closest software peer, needed a full decade. Many fast-growing companies that reached $10 billion, like Moderna and Cheniere Energy, have yet to pass $40 billion, according to Epoch AI.
If OpenAI falls short, it may have to rethink its costly infrastructure deals with Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom. That could create ripple effects across the AI industry, since so many companies are now intertwined. Still, even getting close to these targets would be remarkable for OpenAI and would at least prove there is strong demand, even if high infrastructure costs make AI margins a tough challenge.
This level of growth would likely demand more than just ChatGPT subscriptions. OpenAI expects about half its 2028 revenue to come from ChatGPT, with the rest likely depending on new ventures in advertising, shopping, and automating knowledge work.
